Tuesday, March 24, 2020

DO WE REALLY KNOW WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW?


What Are the numbers we are seeing on coronavirus cases in the United States telling us, and what are they failing to tell us?
Here are some statistics they ARE telling us:  
Recent data of coronavirus cases in the United States show that 40% of those requiring hospitalization have been between the ages of 20 and 54.  For those in critical condition who require intensive care, 12% have been between the ages of 20 and 44.  The mortality rate from the virus remains highest among the very old, with the greatest number of deaths being those 85 and older. 

Here are some statistics they are NOT telling us:
What percentage of these cases were homeless people living on the streets?  What percentage were recently in a foreign country or on a cruise ship? 

Just remember, you can prove either side of any argument by carefully choosing which statistics you use, and which ones you suppress. 

From what the published statistics ARE telling us, the coronavirus has a much longer incubation period than Flu, is far more contagious, and requires more hospitalizations, and even using the most conservative number, it has a mortality rate ten times that of the flu (1% compared to 0.1%).

But, because of what the statistics are NOT telling us, we have no idea if our response has been too much or too little, or if it will prove to have been just right.  It certainly seems unsustainable.  But for now, stay home, wash your hands, and pray.  Perhaps I just have too much time on my hands, and read too many articles like this one:

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