Tuesday, September 1, 2015


On the Republican campaign trail, the crowds are responding to the messages of the outsiders (non politicians).

Carson’s rally in Des Moines, Iowa, saw one of the largest crowds so far this campaign season.  Interest in Fiorina grew after her performance in the first presidential debate.  Trump’s rally in Mobile, Ala., grew so large it had to be moved to a stadium. More than 30,000 attended.

Some Republicans said this too shall pass.  Most expect Cruz to rise higher in the numbers because his campaign is extremely well funded, and Cruz has an organization and significant grassroots campaign infrastructure, and Cruz, like Trump is firmly opposed to the RINO leadership of the GOP.   Experts said he could take the lead if Trump’s numbers ever wane.

Rick Wilson, a Republican consultant said.  “A lot of the Trump stuff is an emotional response to being furious about the establishment, about immigration, all these other sensations that are not illegitimate feelings but that are not going to be politically viable for the long haul,”  Wilson is not working for any presidential candidate in this campaign.

On the Democratic campaign trail, that presidential race is also involved in an upheaval, even though all the candidates and possible candidates are political veterans.

Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed socialist, is drawing huge crowds at his rallies.  He also beat frontrunner Hillary Clinton for the first time in the New Hampshire poll, claiming 44 percent of likely Democratic voters to Clinton’s 37 percent.   This is contrary to the Quinnipiac University poll stating that only 18 percent of Democrats would prefer an outsider candidate in the White House.

Joe Biden is being urged to enter the race, and it sounds like he is seriously considering it.  Although he hasn’t said so, I think he is waiting to see what the outcome of Hillary’s legal problems.  I think the plan is, if she is forced to drop out, he will jump in to fill the void.

According to the Quinnipiac University poll, 55 percent believe an outsider would have better experience for the U.S. presidency than a career politician.

Other presidential candidates in both parties said they aren’t worried about today’s polls and insist that a year of campaigns will make a difference in the way voters will cast their ballot in the primaries.  However, political experts said they may have reason to worry.

Elections now are different than in the past. Previously, establishment party operatives could shut an insurgent candidate out of the media, outspend campaign money, or work to cut off money from key supporters.

“The establishment had almost ironclad control over the rules, over the money,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, manager of Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign. “They could form a firing squad and just hail ammo at you until you drop.”

However, two aspects have changed in this election. The primary difference is the effects of social media.  It is free and makes it easy for all candidates to expound on their message and increase supporters’ involvement.  Citizen journalists chronicle campaign stomps and spread the word about a candidate’s views, even if the mainstream media does not cover them.

In terms of money, the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission removed certain limits on contributions.  That is creating a new revenue stream outside the establishment for fresh-faced candidates.  Besides that, Trump is funding his own campaign.

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